Articles everywhere talk about new normal or next normal or future normal or pick a buzzword. They try to stake out a position for what the near to mid-term future holds. The one thing they have in common is that they all paint a unique picture with no overlapping theories. There is no consistency between current predictions.
There is a great word for when no one agrees on where we are, where we are going, or what the future will look like: uncertainty.
When people ask me my thoughts on where real estate or workplaces will be in 3, 6 or 12 months I literally shrug. As I sit here in the second half of January, the only thing I can say with certainty is that no one can predict where we will all be on January 1st. No one knows if there will be a vaccine or proven treatment for Covid-19. No one knows if there will be a second global spike in cases (or even if the current spike will be over).
Uncertainty makes people uncomfortable. We like to know what we are supposed to do. When things are business as usual, we can plan out our weeks, schedule vacation, coordinate travel schedules, think about new things that are worth starting, and any number of other things. Right now, no one even knows how many people are going to want to come back to offices when they are allowed to.
But uncertainty also creates opportunity. For those that can be patient and begin collecting possible paths to an outcome, scenario planning offers a potential tool for staying ahead of future certainty. While no one wants to be the first mover right now, there is growing evidence to endorse possible near-term scenarios. If you slowly develop the array of possibilities, you will be ready when it is time to actually build on one.
I’m a big believer that ideas take time to process and develop. No new scenarios ever come to mind without time going into them. If you are not evaluating possibilities before they become real, you won’t be ready to take quick advantage of new developments as they happen.
Another name for this whole process? Risk management.
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