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April 16, 2020

Predictions about the future in the middle of a crisis are usually worthless

The middle of a crisis is the worst time to begin thinking about what might happen in the future. A crisis implies short term emotion and challenge which clouds judgment. It is extremely easy to take that emotion and challenge and extrapolate it into the future to believe it will make a massive impact on the way the world works.

This approach overvalues the impact of today and undervalues both history and the natural preferences of people not in crisis response mode. Your frame of mind during the event is different than it was before or will be after. Adrenaline and fear can have a massive impact on decision-making processes.

Wherever possible, you should be withholding future planning as much as possible while the crisis carries on. A global pandemic where 100% of your employees are being forced to work from home is no time to begin thinking that your future real estate strategy should massively increase future work from home rates. Yes, there is now proof that all those people can work from home, but that does not mean they will work there in the future. It’s just as possible they discover exactly how unproductive it is or learn a new appreciation for the office environment. Post-even reactions could swing opposite what was forced on them during the crisis for a period of time.

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