After writing my post a few weeks back on dangerous data, I kept coming back to this mental image of what is actually happening within our workplaces that makes the data so misleading and untrustworthy. Dangerous data does not simply spring forth from nowhere, it is the result of circumstances unlike those that came before. Usually, those circumstances are transitory between where you were and where you will be. This is similar to how the first month in a brand new office will see higher than normal occupancy because everyone wants to come in to see the bright, shiny new space before going back to how they worked before.
Shifting circumstances are the norm at the moment. The context of old data does not match the context we are currently working within. While the units, metrics, and numbers all seem reflective of those today, the reality is they are not at all.
It is very easy for us to look at real estate occupancy data and think that it reflects the demand for space. This is not actually the direct case though. Few people who work in an office choose to come in because they want to sit in a workplace just because. A person choosing to work from an office indicates a decision being made that there are reasons they are choosing that location over working remotely or from another space. The office happens to have some characteristic that leads to that decision. It may be the presence of other people. It may be proximity to a client. It may be conference room availability. It may be a restaurant nearby where they are meeting up with someone after work.
Believing that occupancy reflects the demand for the office is misguided. It reflects the demand for some characteristic or capability offered by the office. If you change the office you may accidentally diminish or negate that characteristic and accidentally change the demand to be in the workplace. This is also why data today is not aligned with older data. The pandemic has changed the way people think about the office. The decision process to work from the office or remote has shifted so dramatically that the demand curves are not aligned at all.