“Real Estate in the Age of Social Distancing” will be a book title before the year is out. It almost seems to write itself. Real Estate is a hot topic – particularly workplace. Social Distancing is the new rage (not necessarily for good reasons of course). Throw the word “Age” in to get some buzzword accelerants.
It’s been a touch few months to be in real estate. Normally, nothing we do happens quickly. It takes 18 months to plan and execute a new project. Capital plans are roughed out two years in advance. Expiration and notice dates are forecasted well in advance with site plans started years in advance.
Social distancing has changed everything in our industry. The office is not a place that can handle the concept. There are no redesigns that make it work. You can buy all the plexiglass cubicle shields you want, it does not change the fact that there will never be individual coffee machines, microwaves, refrigerators or bathrooms. The office cannot be socially distanced.
Here’s the rub, social distancing will be with us for awhile. If you had a crystal ball that could accurately predict when it would permanently end, you could probably make your fortune. Businesses around the world are trying to make plans with a giant question mark around when the social distancing bogey will end. There’s no point in forecasting work for Q4 2020 if we don’t know whether social distancing will still be a situation or not. The best you can do is make three versions: with, without, and with but pretending it isn’t a thing.
Planning without a clear time horizon is all about realizing that all plans are fallible. Do not pretend the situation is different than it actually is. Work with the facts you know, don’t pretend to account for facts not yet in hand. We all want to treat this as if everything is normal but unfortunately that is not the reality we are in.