There are a lot of people writing and talking about what the Covid-19 situation means for retail, supply chain, consumer behavior, and professional behavior. Some are saying that the restaurant experience will never be the same. Some think that the travel industry will never recover. Others think that handshaking will never come back. (And those links are just the first that come up.)
I cannot emphasize this enough: we are not even 90 days into this current situation. No one knows how long it is really going to last. No one knows if there will be a recurrence later in the year. No one knows how this pandemic will sink into the public’s psyche.
Right now, companies and individuals are in the midst of responding to an ever-changing situation. It is less than advisable to do logical long-term planning when the mind is in reactive mode. Most people are thinking short-term which is different from how people approach long-term strategy. There are simply too many variables to take into account right now to understand the long-term impact of this situation.
- What will the final numbers (infected, fatalities) be from the virus?
- How quickly will companies be able to return to work?
- How quickly will the economy bounce back?
- How long will unemployment last for people?
- What impact will government efforts have on financial markets?
- Which countries will have the biggest on-going impact?
- Which industries will have structural changes and will they be able to adapt?
- What trickle down impact will there be from all the above?
With the number of unknowns, long-term decisions and forecasts are untenable.