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March 1, 2012

Ambiguity and Decision Making

Ambiguity:  of information, in words, pictures, or other media, is the ability to express more than one interpretation. It is generally contrasted with vagueness, in that specific and distinct interpretations are permitted (although some may not be immediately apparent), whereas with information that is vague it is difficult to form any interpretation at the desired level of specificity.

I have a problem.  I don’t like decisions that could go one of any direction with no seemingly different outcome.  Many people assume that purchasing a Toyota Camry vs. a Honda Accord will lead to the same outcome.  That the cars are similar enough that there is no difference.  The phrase “similar enough” is the part that gets me. There are differences and the more similar the outcomes of a decision are the more important the details become (at least in my eyes).

Most people don’t have this problem of mine.  Maybe it’s a bit OCD but all I can say is that I firmly believe that no decision ever has at least two equivalent outcomes.  Deciding between Burger King and McDonalds (assuming equivalent driving distance and convenience of access)?  Based on your mental state and the flavors you’ve eaten over the last three days will make one more satisfying than the other.  You may be perfectly content with either option but there is one that has a greater total outcome than the other.

This then leads into the concept of the decision cap.  At some point most people no longer care about the differences because at that point they know they will be satisfied and it meets the minimum threshold for the effort they want to put into deciding.  They know they will be happy regardless and the additional improvement in decision quality will not impact that “happiness level.”  This is perfectly acceptable and normal.

Sometimes though, that ability to understand the differences of the details is critical and can have longer term impacts.  One day I’ll find the example that proves the rule and have the last laugh.  In the meantime though, if you need someone to decide a tie breaker I may just be the person you need!

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