Change happens (as I can firmly attest to). You’ll never be able to expect what is about to happen – it’s like war, as the first arrow flies all plans are now forced to adapt. Managing the rules and risks are the key. If you can predict the most likely scenarios you’ll likely end up ahead of the curve.
I’ve been doing a deep dive education on Monte Carlo simulation and have had my eyes reopened to the world of risk management. Accurately modeling what could happen is a very good thing. When you are about to undergo a change event that you have control over, it’s important to develop a business case around it. The bigger the event, the more detail needed.