I am absolutely amazed at the number of CRE professionals that act as if they know what workplaces are going to be after COVID-19 is behind us. There are articles and white papers and case studies all pretending to have certainty on what people are going to want from the office when returns are allowed. Providing false certainty is going to lead to some companies making some really bad decisions in the near term.
CRE is the intersection of business (COVID is currently disrupting future business strategies), real estate markets (COVID is currently significantly disrupting market trends), workplace operations (how many people are going to need space in the office 2, 3, 4, or 5 days a week post-COVID), and financial strategy (real estate is a cost center meaning that the strategy is needed to determine the optimal cost of space for a business). All four of these areas of intersection are in flux. Meaning, even if there is certainty around 1 or 2, the uncertainty around the others leads to overall uncertainty.
Uncertainty is not a bad place to be. Opportunity is born from uncertainty. Remaining flexible leaves you the ability to change and adapt as new information becomes available. Knowing that you cannot make too many long-term decisions leaves you open to discarding the old and taking the new path.
Certainty makes work easier to deal with because it allows us to expect and plan for what will happen tomorrow. When every day can bring something new and different, it can lead to stress and doubt. Stress and doubt can then lead to bad decisions that limit your ability to deal with the on-the-ground reality.
My expectation is that the next 36 months are going to lead to a lot of new beliefs around what Corporate Real Estate is going to be. We are going to see a sprint away from space, a correction back to more space, then settling into a new global direction around remote working and agility. There will also be on-going back and forths over privacy versus flexibility, focus work versus collaboration, efficacy of working from home, and many other topics that impact workplace experience.
Buckle up, it’s going to be a ride.