I was doing my typical scrolling through LinkedIn today where I came across three separate articles talking about the growth of flexible office space. One was about WeWork potentially collapsing but the industry expanding, another about the concept applying to more organizations and then a third that included a chart showing a low, medium and high market penetration forecast.
It’s the third that really caught my eye and made me shake my head. The “low” forecast showed flex offices going from 2% of the market today to 6% in 10 years. That’s the LOW FORECAST. This is what’s called buying into the bubble. Is it possible that this will happen? Of course.
The high forecast showed flex offices going from 2% today to 21+% in 10 years. Is it possible that this will happen? Of course.
But here’s the thing, it’s also possible that 2% holds steady for the next 10 years. Or that a bubble grows to 5% and then settles back at 4%. Or that it bubbles to 10% and then crashes back to 5%. There are lots of scenarios that could play out in this space. Labeling 3 aggressive growth scenarios as low, medium, and high simply plant a false narrative into the space.
There’s always a scenario that goes to zero. Theoretically, the stock market could go to zero, gold could go to zero, housing market goes to zero, fuel prices drop to zero. The real question should be, what is the probability that zero happens? Similarly, what is the probability that the growth forecasts happen?
Life is uncertain. Anyone who paints you a picture otherwise is selling you a bill of goods.